Moved all the posts from the Nico points predictions thread here since it was a debate about Miller's play style. Quote from: arxpert on July 19, 2019, 10:49:47 AM
Stop drinking the Liquid. Nico is better than Lonzo Ball right now today.
slower play = fewer offensive opportunities = fewer points = fewer assists
Miller's system is the ultimate cock blocker for player stats.
Speed, athleticism and talent mean less at Arizona than most any other school.
We are going to play fast paced offense and lockdown defense this year. Book it.
Quote from: arxpert on July 20, 2019, 03:08:42 PM
We are going to play fast paced offense and lockdown defense this year. Book it.
literally not at all possible with the pack line. You literally cannot run.
I think the pack-line is a defensive scheme. It should affect the overall PPG, but not the style of offense.
Quote from: KansasCityCats on July 22, 2019, 06:36:10 AM
I think the pack-line is a defensive scheme. It should affect the overall PPG, but not the style of offense.
Did you want to re-think that?
ANY defense effects the style of offense you play. This is basketball 101, perhaps even remedial basketball.
Transition is only possible of you transition faster than your opponent. When 4 players are within 16 feet of the basket, there are limited outlet options for a defensive rebounds...this is a classic component of the pack line - especially if you send all four of the rebound - which Miller has in some years.
Again...transition basketball (or lack thereof) affects the total PPG...but not your offensive efficiency.
Higher shooting percentages and opportunities at the FT line are determined by offensive schemes, not the pack-line defense.
Quote from: KansasCityCats on July 29, 2019, 08:16:53 AM
Again...transition basketball (or lack thereof) affects the total PPG...but not your offensive efficiency.
Higher shooting percentages and opportunities at the FT line are determined by offensive schemes, not the pack-line defense.
KC - always respect your knowledge and must assume that we are talking about two different things.
So I consider 'playing fast' or 'playing slow' or 'half-court offense' or 'run and gun' etc to be
styles of offense. They are not offenses in themselves and anyone one of them can be efficient or inefficicent depending on how well they are executed.
My point was not about efficiency or the offensive scheme that determines them. My point was to respond to someone who wrote that we were going to 'play fast' or 'run' this year.
1. Miller has had some of the most elite players of the past decade and never once played fast or run.
2. When you play the pack line defense you cannot run. If you play Paul Westphal style you send Hank Gathers to the board and he has his choice of four players streaking down court to throw an outlet pass to. If you play Miller's pack line, you send four guys to the board or at least have 4 guys within 16 feet of the basket when one of them grabs the rebound...so unless the other team is stoned out of their gourds, you literally can't fast break out of a pack-line D. No fast break means we are not gonna run.
That is completely independent of how efficient you are once you get into your 1/2 court offense- whether you run high-low post Wooden type offense, or high ball screen or what ever...the point is you cannot beat the other team down the floor from the Pack line D - therefore it is literally not possible for us to 'run' or play fast on most possessions. Sometimes we get a steal or the other guys are slow to get back...but we've seen player after player, brilliant in the open court (Nick Johnson, MoMo, Fogg, Simmons, Stanimal, Gordon, Hollis-Jefferson) and yet we did not use them much as open court players because they were stuck in a pack line D.
STYLE of defense always influences what you can or cannot do on offense. How efficient you are at doing those things is a totally different point.
QuoteThis will be the only time I address you because of your well established douchebaggery, but don't you dare try to take my observation on Miller's offense down your perverted rabbit hole of inane blabbering and scattershot shitposts.
So you cannot take a compliment? I thought you made great point.
But since you are not addressing me - there is a reason Miller's players do not have higher averages. It is not perverted, blabbering nor scattershot. But it is because Miller is playing a mid 80's, mid major offense. Pre-analytics. Designed to compensate when playing more talented and taller teams...only....we have the height and the talent...
I get it. Every year, Miller emphasizes (in the offseason) that he wants to pick up the tempo. It rarely happens, but our offense has been solid in the past.
Our points per game don't necessarily suffer, as Arizona still maintained a decent average:
2017-18: 31st
2016-17: 77th
2015-16: 17th
2014-15: 18th
2013-14: 93rd
2012-13: 36th
2011-12: 128th
2010-11: 22nd
2009-10: 94th
It's nothing compared to Lute's teams, however the offense is efficient and our defense has been ranked in the Top-15 for a majority of Miller's seasons...which puts less pressure on the team to score.
Hoping we can dominate on BOTH sides of the ball this year! Nico will make a huge difference.
I agree generally if Liquid is arguing Miller needs to up the tempo. If we have the individual defenders on the perimeter, the pack-line is great but it does nothing in terms of letting our length and athleticism terrorize passing lanes. Getting those easy points off of steals is something I have missed during the Miller era and has a big impact on ppg, possessions/game, and offensive efficiency.
Not sure that belongs in the Nico thread but if Nico can hit 35 footers with consistency our defense wont matter much.
To Miller's credit, our Offensive Efficiency Rankings have been pretty good:
2017-18: 12th
2016-17: 15th
2015-16: 26th
2014-15: 12th
2013-14: 46th
2012-13: 26th
2011-12: 94th
2010-11: 14th
2009-10: 145th
Yes. We'd ALL love to see the Cats running this year...especially with an NBA-caliber point guard.
Quote from: KansasCityCats on July 30, 2019, 07:59:07 AM
To Miller's credit, our Offensive Efficiency Rankings have been pretty good:
2017-18: 12th
2016-17: 15th
2015-16: 26th
2014-15: 12th
2013-14: 46th
2012-13: 26th
2011-12: 94th
2010-11: 14th
2009-10: 145th
Yes. We'd ALL love to see the Cats running this year...especially with an NBA-caliber point guard.
It's easy to forget how good we were the first 4 years of the Miller era after 2 of the last 3 years have been down right atrocious. What the hell happened to James Whitford? Get that guy back here lololol
Quote from: KansasCityCats on July 30, 2019, 07:59:07 AM
To Miller's credit, our Offensive Efficiency Rankings have been pretty good:
2017-18: 12th
2016-17: 15th
2015-16: 26th
2014-15: 12th
2013-14: 46th
2012-13: 26th
2011-12: 94th
2010-11: 14th
2009-10: 145th
Yes. We'd ALL love to see the Cats running this year...especially with an NBA-caliber point guard.
I may be close to alone on this here, but maybe not --->
I think Sean Miller is one of the best coaches as a swiss army knife. I think he makes way more adjustments IN GAME than is given credit for.
THAT SAID ---> Regarding RUN AND GUN: We have always had "NBA style players" but we never had a true NBA Point Guard. TJ McConnell was a methodical IQ PG and when he was around, we had the best slew of NBA talent playing big minutes. When Lauri and Ayton were there, we had 2 7 footers on the court dominating that playing style (yes Buffalo blew us off the court with a strategy of 6 guys that were 6'5/6'6 running and gunning on poor Dusan Ristic and Ayton and making a ton of 3s in a 'make or miss' game having a day.)
Sean Millers ALWAYS adapts to the TALENT he brings in. Nico, Josh Green, Zeke APPEAR athletic. We should all agree on this. They seem like UP TEMPO players. I fully expect Nico to play fast in transition and find the cutting Green often.
In the half court set, which is bound to happen of course, I fully expect Nico to break down the defense and find the token [Brandon Ashley] Zeke in the corner for the swish stretch 4 jumper. (Offensive Efficiency)
I want to agree with ya but Miller is pretty rigid in what he plays. He runs the pack line defense with little to no variation and has since Xavier. He will never play zone, hates to press, and would rather his guys play legitimate man to man defense and stay in front of their man instead of taking risks and looking for steals. I am not sure that makes him a swiss army knife on D but it absolutely prepares his players for the NBA where no matter how offensively dangerous you are, if you can't stay in front of your guy, you will end up overseas... just ask Jimmer Fredette or even Nick Johnson.
Don't get me started on our offense being adjustable. We need playmakers and guys who can hit shots for our offense to look decent. That is probably true of any offense in the history of basketball lol. Against any zone we resort to passing the ball around the perimeter for 15 seconds and settling for a bad shot. It is an issue lol, probably our biggest. Every March teams use Zone defenses against us, for a reason.
Are you saying that NBA players should play defense prior to the playoffs? If so, Nick Johnson would have a job in a heartbeat...the guy was arguably our best defender over the past decade.
Arizona doesn't steal the ball often, but they keep opponents frustrated by forcing bad shots. Until the past couple years, our defensive shooting % has been great.
QuoteI think Sean Miller is one of the best coaches as a swiss army knife. I think he makes way more adjustments IN GAME than is given credit for.
Honestly, he's more like switch blade. He's got 1 and one 1 move. Substitutions are not adjustments and that is literally almost the only thing he ever does in games. Early last season (in Maui) we saw double teams in the low post - that is not a pack line attribute...so that was a legitimate adjustment. But this is the guy who bragged to the media about not ever practicing the press. Not only does he not have any tricks in his bag, he has no bag. Nothing. This is not just Miller hatred. At a school like Xavier or Wichita or Buffalo, pack line might make sense. And you have to admire the sheer stubbornness and will it takes to never change anything. Throwing a 1-3-1 at someone for a few plays or an unexpected press in the middle of the game is an adjustment. Not running the same high ball screen on every single offensive possession and just trying to do anything else is an adjustment.
QuoteTHAT SAID ---> Regarding RUN AND GUN: We have always had "NBA style players" but we never had a true NBA Point Guard. TJ McConnell was a methodical IQ PG and when he was around, we had the best slew of NBA talent playing big minutes.
Isn't it interesting that he is the only NBA Point Guard Miller has produced and he, as you note, does not fit the mold?
QuoteWhen Lauri and Ayton were there, we had 2 7 footers on the court dominating that playing style (yes Buffalo blew us off the court with a strategy of 6 guys that were 6'5/6'6 running and gunning on poor Dusan Ristic and Ayton and making a ton of 3s in a 'make or miss' game having a day.)
There are not two more different 7 footers in the world. Lauri, offensively, is a 2 guard. He was shooting .683 from three point range at one point in mid January of that year. Miller then decided to 'move him inside'. Lauri would have shattered any and all 3 point college records but Miller wanted him to play out of position and it messed with his head. Why on earth would anyone do that? He was a solid inside player, too...but a guy who can shoot like that should be parked outside. He also had a good first step and was so quick for a guy his size. IN "position-less basketball" he may be THE prototype 7 footer.
Ayton is a pure center. I really think 4 years under good coaching in college and he is Hakeem Olajuwan or maybe even better. We'll know in 4-5 years... but of course the game is different now, even for those true center types.
QuoteSean Millers ALWAYS adapts to the TALENT he brings in.
This is absolutely not even remotely true at all and you cannot cite a single time Miller has adjusted defensive or offensive strategy to accommodate a single players skill sets. In fact this is the biggest pitfall Miller has a coach. Rsitic, Zeus and Ayton, three totally different players all had exactly the same assignment as center. RHJ, Randolph and Parrom all played identical roles on the wing and they are significantly different skill sets. Mark Lyons didn't shoot more than Momo or PJC - he was just better at scoring.
QuoteNico, Josh Green, Zeke APPEAR athletic. We should all agree on this. They seem like UP TEMPO players. I fully expect Nico to play fast in transition and find the cutting Green often.
Yes the DO appear to be elite level athletes. But no more or less so than Comanche, PJC, Trier, York, Simon and Allen from 2015-2016 or Nick Johnson, Gordon, Ashley and RHJ from 2013-2014... and yet Miller does not use their athleticism. Ever. They might be better Basketball players, but I doubt they are, as a group, better athletes. Aaron Gordon was redunkulous.
QuoteIn the half court set, which is bound to happen of course, I fully expect Nico to break down the defense and find the token [Brandon Ashley] Zeke in the corner for the swish stretch 4 jumper.
I do too. After 4 or 5 high ball screens that have Zeke or Chase hedging in the high post....
My complaints about Miller are well known and there are lost of them. Respectfully, you literally just described the exact opposite of everything Miller is as a basketball coach and everything he has shown us over a ten year period. He's made no major adjustments to his philosophies, ever (Lute did, K does, Izzzo does...) he makes almost no in game adjustments (largely because he can't), he has never properly utilized personnel (how is it players like Simmons and Trier explode when they get to the NBA but could not get their college teams out of the first round? Or unanimously believed first round draft picks as HS seniors end up completely undrafted (Ashley, Zeus, Trier).
QuoteI think Sean Miller is one of the best coaches as a swiss army knife. I think he makes way more adjustments IN GAME than is given credit for.
Honestly, he's more like a switch blade. He's got 1 and only 1 move. Substitutions are not adjustments and that is literally almost the only thing he ever does in games. Early last season (in Maui) we saw double teams in the low post - that is not a pack line attribute...so that was a legitimate adjustment (and we had some success - but inexplicably, we never saw it again). This is the guy who bragged to the media about not ever practicing the press. Not only does he not have any tricks in his bag, he has no bag. Nothing. This is not just Miller hatred. At a school like Xavier or Wichita or Buffalo, pack line might make sense. And you have to admire the sheer stubbornness and will it takes to never change anything. Throwing a 1-3-1 at someone for a few plays or an unexpected press in the middle of the game is an adjustment. Not running the same high ball screen on every single offensive possession and just trying to do anything else is an adjustment. But we see nothing like that. Ever.
QuoteTHAT SAID ---> Regarding RUN AND GUN: We have always had "NBA style players" but we never had a true NBA Point Guard. TJ McConnell was a methodical IQ PG and when he was around, we had the best slew of NBA talent playing big minutes.
Isn't it interesting that he is the only NBA Point Guard Miller has produced and he, as you note, does not fit the NBA PG mold?
QuoteWhen Lauri and Ayton were there, we had 2 7 footers on the court dominating that playing style (yes Buffalo blew us off the court with a strategy of 6 guys that were 6'5/6'6 running and gunning on poor Dusan Ristic and Ayton and making a ton of 3s in a 'make or miss' game having a day.)
There are not two more different 7 footers in the world. Lauri, offensively, is a 2 guard or wing. He was shooting .683 from three point range at one point in mid January of that year. Miller then decided to 'move him inside'. Lauri would have shattered any and all 3 point college records but Miller wanted him to play out of position and it messed with his head. Why on earth would anyone do that? He was a solid inside player, too...but a guy who can shoot like that should be parked outside (see: The Chicago Bulls, rookie of the year candidacy etc...). He also had a good first step and was so quick for a guy his size, so he could create his own shot if another big came outside. IN "position-less basketball" he may be THE prototype 7 footer.
Ayton is a throwback pure center. I really think 4 years under good coaching in college and he is Hakeem Olajuwan or maybe even better. We'll know in 4-5 years... but of course the game is different now, see: "position-less basketball".
QuoteSean Millers ALWAYS adapts to the TALENT he brings in.
This is absolutely not even remotely true at all and you cannot cite a single time Miller has adjusted defensive or offensive strategy to accommodate a single players skill sets. In fact this is the biggest pitfall Miller has a coach, IMO. It is not just mine. Risitic, Zeus and Ayton, three totally different players all had exactly the same assignment as center. RHJ, Randolph and Parrom all played identical roles on the wing and they are significantly different skill sets. Mark Lyons didn't shoot much more than Momo or PJC - he was just better at scoring. PJC was better at assists - but the position was coached exactly the same way for all three.
QuoteNico, Josh Green, Zeke APPEAR athletic. We should all agree on this. They seem like UP TEMPO players. I fully expect Nico to play fast in transition and find the cutting Green often.
Yes they DO appear to be elite level athletes. But no more or less so than Comanche, PJC, Trier, York, Simon and Allen from 2015-2016 or Nick Johnson, Gordon, Ashley and RHJ from 2013-2014... and yet Miller does not use their athleticism. Ever. They might be better Basketball players, but I doubt they are, as a group, better athletes. Aaron Gordon was redunkulous.
QuoteIn the half court set, which is bound to happen of course, I fully expect Nico to break down the defense and find the token [Brandon Ashley] Zeke in the corner for the swish stretch 4 jumper.
I can see that. After 4 or 5 high ball screens that have Zeke or Chase hedging in the high post....And it will look, schematically, exactly the same as Ristic, Ashley, Solomon, Luther or Anderson stepping out...
My complaints about Miller are well known and there are lost of them. Respectfully, you literally just described the exact opposite of everything Miller is as a basketball coach and everything he has shown us over a ten year period. He's made no major adjustments to his philosophies, ever (Lute did, K does, Izzzo does...) he makes almost no in game adjustments (largely because he can't), he has never properly utilized personnel (how is it players like Simmons and Trier explode when they get to the NBA but could not get their college teams out of the first round? Or unanimously believed first round draft picks as HS seniors end up completely undrafted (Ashley, Zeus, Trier).
Quote from: KansasCityCats on July 30, 2019, 10:14:36 AM
Are you saying that NBA players should play defense prior to the playoffs? If so, Nick Johnson would have a job in a heartbeat...the guy was arguably our best defender over the past decade.
Arizona doesn't steal the ball often, but they keep opponents frustrated by forcing bad shots. Until the past couple years, our defensive shooting % has been great.
Exactly. That is what the pack line is designed to do, play the percentages and try to make your team take tough shots. Our teams the last couple of years have had no chance at stopping things on the perimeter and our sefense would collapse as guys are forced to rotate or bigs move up.
If Nick Johnson could defend NBA PG's he would be in the NBA right now. He simply doesn't have the lateral quickness to make that happen and he is not a shooting specialist or anything... so overseas he goes.
Also, TJ Mcconnell was a little better defender than Nick johnson, as was Rondae.
Barring an injury, Josh Green is getting drafted...high.
How did Miller not utilize the athleticism of his recruits? Trier constantly got to the basket, NJ was known for flying through the lane, RHJ played inside AND out and Gordon was one of the best dunkers in Arizona history. It isn't fair to compare guys like PJC, Comanche, Simon, York & Allen...players who weren't known for their athleticism.
Xavier/Wichita/Buffalo should be playing the zone...not us. Zone is for teams that do NOT have athleticism...and can't cover their men. It's for lazy schools that don't understand how to go through screens & switch on pick-and-rolls. Arizona's defensive scheme has consistently kept opponent's shooting percentages at a minimum since Miller's arrival.
Lauri shot 41.7% from 3PT range in OOC. He had a hot January & a cold February/March. That wasn't a result of his position change. If it were, he'd be shooting 50%+ during the first half of the season. https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/lauri-markkanen-1/gamelog/2017/
In reality, I'm hoping that Jack Murphy can bring a new offensive mentality to this team. Miller understands the fundamentals, but I agree that he needs to pick up the tempo. Perhaps Jack can channel his inner Lute...
Deja vu Kansas, as I remember hoping Romar would bring a breath of fresh air to our offense too! Ah well, hope you are right with Murph.
Quote from: ollieboy5150 on July 30, 2019, 12:49:34 PM
Deja vu Kansas, as I remember hoping Romar would bring a breath of fresh air to our offense too! Ah well, hope you are right with Murph.
I had high hopes for an actual zone offense to show up when Romar was here, but yeah, no change. but I share the sentiment, "Ah well, hope you are right with Murph"
Since when has Kobi Simmons exploded as an elite rising star in the NBA?
Quote from: arxpert on July 30, 2019, 03:52:45 PM
Since when has Kobi Simmons exploded as an elite rising star in the NBA?
As a 19 year old rookie, Kobi Simons played in 32 games, averaged 20 minutes per game shot .428 from the field, averaged 2 assist and 6 points per game. Thats pretty damn impressive for a guy that Miller Benched.
Quote from: wc on July 30, 2019, 03:34:55 PM
Quote from: ollieboy5150 on July 30, 2019, 12:49:34 PM
Deja vu Kansas, as I remember hoping Romar would bring a breath of fresh air to our offense too! Ah well, hope you are right with Murph.
I had high hopes for an actual zone offense to show up when Romar was here, but yeah, no change. but I share the sentiment, "Ah well, hope you are right with Murph"
Really? Romar is well known and respected as great guy, but I think he might be an idiot-savant (look it up if you don't know exactly what it means - I am NOT calling him an idiot). He clearly recruits well and loves his guys but his washington teams were pure chaos on the court, immensely talented but totally disorganized and inconsistent.
QuoteBarring an injury, Josh Green is getting drafted...high.
ok
QuoteHow did Miller not utilize the athleticism of his recruits?
Playing the pack line defense. It is designed for less athletic and shorter players. Using elite athletes wastes their abilities to block shots, steal the ball (a big no-no for Miller), and especially not to run and open the game up. We have literally had the personnel to run people off the floor for almost a decade and not even tried to do so.
QuoteTrier constantly got to the basket, NJ was known for flying through the lane, RHJ played inside AND out and Gordon was one of the best dunkers in Arizona history.
How many of them even came to close to living up to their potential?
QuoteIt isn't fair to compare guys like PJC, Comanche, Simon, York & Allen...players who weren't known for their athleticism.
I wasn't comparing them, just noting they were part of the over all team that was athletic. PJC was an outstanding athlete, fast quick and always under control. He is the same athlete that Jason Terry is. He just dod not have the BB IQ or BB abilities. Comanche is one of the most athletic bigs we have seen - in that Loren Woods, Brandon Ashley mode...again, not as talented but every bit the athlete. York, like PJC did not want for athleticism, he was just too short and not really all that good....the pint is all of them were as good or better athetles than almost anyone we played and Miller, rather than use that, had them playing brain dead offense and the pack line defense.
QuoteXavier/Wichita/Buffalo should be playing the zone...not us. Zone is for teams that do NOT have athleticism...and can't cover their men. It's for lazy schools that don't understand how to go through screens & switch on pick-and-rolls.
No one has ever suggested that we should run a zone defense exclusively or even primarily. But we should have 5 (minimum) that we can switch into to change tempo, run isolations or double teams on opposing players, surprise coaches, force them to call time outs or make substitutions...there are not 5 great coaches you can name that have not been able to switch into different defenses. Boeheim, Knight and.....go ahead...name another. They are few and far between.
QuoteArizona's defensive scheme has consistently kept opponent's shooting percentages at a minimum since Miller's arrival.
Not appreciably better than Lutes teams who played mostly M2M but also 1-3-1's, 2-3's, full court presses, triangle and 2, and several others, and the Iverson D which was a m2m but double teamed the ball at all times while not covering Iverson and let him do whatever he wanted. One of the most brilliant coaching moves ever.
QuoteLauri shot 41.7% from 3PT range in OOC.
It was .435 (27 of 62)
QuoteHe had a hot January & a cold February/March.
yep.
QuoteThat wasn't a result of his position change. If it were, he'd be shooting 50%+ during the first half of the season. https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/lauri-markkanen-1/gamelog/2017/
It absolutely was. He was shooting .689 from 3 pint range in January when Miller announced the change. I had to look it up again - but had calculated this at the time. Miller announced that Lauri would 'move inside' after the UCLA game on the 21st of January. IN JANUARY, he had shot .689 up until that point. Gary Randazzo or Brad Allis did an article on that at the time on the old site. It was a 6 game stretch but it was clearly a pattern and it was the 'move inside' that coincided with his shooting %'s that fell off a cliff. That is all on Miller and is a bafflingly stupid mistake.
Lauri would only make 21 3-pointers in all of the remainder of the season - which was 17 games, fewer than 2 per game for a guy who began the year averaging .689. If my player is hitting .689, I'm telling him not to wash his uniform and not to do anything different from what he is doing and I sure as hell am not making public statements about moving him to different position. Miller is stupid, stupid, stupid.
OOC = .435
January = .600
February & March = .267
No player in the world suddenly goes that cold. Not even Steve Kerr in the final four or Brand Randolph last year.
QuoteIn reality, I'm hoping that Jack Murphy can bring a new offensive mentality to this team.
Not going to happen. Murphy was effectively hired by a group of boosters, Miller is a very petty guy and has to be resentful and is probably keen on marginalizing him. Romar had zero impact and Miller allegedly liked him. The coaches Miller hired are all pack line guys. Murphy will be far down the bench (if not physically, metaphorically) and have no influence. It's not like Murphy is any sort of basketball master mind look at his dismal NAU record. He was brought in to police Miller.
QuoteMiller understands the fundamentals,
I seriously doubt that... he is totally ignoring analytics, playing the worst possible defense for the athleticism and skill level of his players, and for the current game
Quotebut I agree that he needs to pick up the tempo.
Exactly, why wouldn't you? With These kinds of players? Of course....but it means abandoning the pack line to do so.
QuotePerhaps Jack can channel his inner Lute...
A guy who had 1 wining season in 7 as a head coach> Not sure how much 'inner Lute' is there, pretty sure it's none.
QuoteExactly. That is what the pack line is designed to do, play the percentages and try to make your team take tough shots.
It is designed to stop penetration and mid range shots and force outside shooting and specifically gives up perimeter pressure, steals & outside shooting (erroneously thought to be lower percentage shots)....it was developed before the 3 point shot and for teams that are shorter and slower and less athletic than their opponents. Girls HS teams are the best use of the pack line. We have no problems with height, athleticism or talent and we have a three point line - which just got moved back making the pack line even less effective at defending the perimeter shooters.
The geeks who own the Golden State Warriors showed that, in fact, it is the mid range shots that are the lowest percentage shots and most every college coach in America has adjusted their thinking...but not Miller.
Listen to Jon Rothstein - he interviews almost every single power 5 coach in the off season especially the new ones taking over failed programs. To a person every single one of them has talked about analytics this year.
QuoteOur teams the last couple of years have had no chance at stopping things on the perimeter and our sefense would collapse as guys are forced to rotate or bigs move up.
No different than any other year Miller was here, except for individual talent levels. The schematics were identical, though.
Pack Line was designed for athletes that can stay in front of the ball. HS Girls Bball uses it because they understand the fundamentals of the game and don't want to "save energy" but being lazy and standing in a general area for 40 minutes.
Kobi's 42.8% shooting is impressive in 60 minutes of play? That's good for 335th in the league. Hell, 7 of Arizona's players had a better % than Kobi in the same season. The kid didn't play in the league this year for a reason.
Of the 4 guys I mentioned, Trier/RHJ/Gordon are in the league with contracts. Everybody knew that NJ was athletic, similar to Salim, wasn't quite an NBA PG. Their athleticism was absolutely utilized in college.
PJC was 5'7". He couldn't dunk, but he was recruited as a nice backup PG in college. Comanche's footwork was miserable. He only started 8 G-League games last year because (similar to Kobi) he thinks he's entitled to an NBA spot...and doesn't want to work for one.
Fran Dunphy, Jim Boeheim & Mike Hopkins are 3 guys that are zone-only coaches. Even Scott Drew stayed away from man-to-man until this last season. There are numerous coaches that solely run man-to-man, specifically pack-line. UVA just won 4 of the last 6 ACC Titles and a National Championship without sniffing the lazy-zone.
I remember Lute's 1-3-1 well. It allowed UW to come back from a 2nd half double-digit deficit on Senior Night in 2006. We had that game wrapped up until Mustafa Shakur kept rotating into coverage with the Huskies' big men. Stellar.
If Lauri moved "inside", then he was likely covered by big men that couldn't rotate to the perimeter. If he finished with a 26.7% 3-PT mark...it's on him. The announcers constantly brought up that it was a confidence issue; he's a freshman...it happens. He took just as many 3-PT attempts per game, so it didn't affect his ability to get to the perimeter. Miller shouldn't be the scapegoat for Lauri's 2-month struggle.
We'll see about Murphy. He was brought in as Associate HC & he's the only assistant with a decent amount of D-1 coaching experience. He'll be involved in the game-plans. NAU was miserable. Last season, their defense was 314th...but their offense was 157th. In fact, their team shooting percentage was the same as Kobi Simmons' in 2017-18!
Quote from: Liquidated on July 30, 2019, 11:11:51 PM
QuoteExactly. That is what the pack line is designed to do, play the percentages and try to make your team take tough shots.
It is designed to stop penetration and mid range shots and force outside shooting and specifically gives up perimeter pressure, steals & outside shooting (erroneously thought to be lower percentage shots)....it was developed before the 3 point shot and for teams that are shorter and slower and less athletic than their opponents. Girls HS teams are the best use of the pack line. We have no problems with height, athleticism or talent and we have a three point line - which just got moved back making the pack line even less effective at defending the perimeter shooters.
The geeks who own the Golden State Warriors showed that, in fact, it is the mid range shots that are the lowest percentage shots and most every college coach in America has adjusted their thinking...but not Miller.
Listen to Jon Rothstein - he interviews almost every single power 5 coach in the off season especially the new ones taking over failed programs. To a person every single one of them has talked about analytics this year.
QuoteOur teams the last couple of years have had no chance at stopping things on the perimeter and our sefense would collapse as guys are forced to rotate or bigs move up.
No different than any other year Miller was here, except for individual talent levels. The schematics were identical, though.
Miller loves analytics. That has nothing to do with running a pack line defense lololol. You crack me up with the shit you pull out of your ass.
You also answered your own question... The pack line is meant to keep the offensive player in front of you. Shutting down penetration and mid-range shots, just as you say. You are correct there, but where you have a lack of understanding is how having bigger, quicker, longer, more athletic players, aka talented in your book, those guys will be able to close out on 3 point shooters better than ANYONE else.
SOOOOO if you have shut down penetration, shut down the mid-range game, AND you are able to close out on 3 point shooters and force tough shots.... WHERE IS THE WEAKNESS OF THE DEFENSE?
Do you think it's a coincidence that the year we had 3 dudes capable of keeping their man in front of them on the perimeter without help (TJ, Nick J, and Rondae) we also had the #1 defense in the country? The best. Nobody better on defense than Sean Miller and his 1980's HS girls defensive scheme.
Think about it, Liquid. Dammit.
Quote from: KansasCityCats on July 31, 2019, 06:07:15 AM
If Lauri moved "inside", then he was likely covered by big men that couldn't rotate to the perimeter. If he finished with a 26.7% 3-PT mark...it's on him. The announcers constantly brought up that it was a confidence issue; he's a freshman...it happens. He took just as many 3-PT attempts per game, so it didn't affect his ability to get to the perimeter. Miller shouldn't be the scapegoat for Lauri's 2-month struggle.
Just looked into it for you first games he shoot 96 threes in 20 games around 5 attempts a game. After UCLA game after Allonzo came back he attempted 67 threes in 17 games around 4 attempts a game. So not coincidentally once Allonzo came back his 3PA and overall FGA took slight dips in his return. Not whatever moved "inside" means, playing center? Wouldn't make sense either sense Ristic played there all year, regardless it's a massive stretch to think shooting 4 instead of 5 threes a game is the reason behind a cold-streak.
Liquid is suffering from selective memory syndrome.
Golden State Warriors didn't prove anything concrete with the 3 point shot. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson happen to be the greatest 3pt shooting tandem in NBA history and mostly just Steph Curry being the greatest 3pt shooter ever. It's now actually been proven to be an OUTLIER as they did not win 2 championships at this point because jacking up 3s and being thin on defense in Man To Man eventually regresses to the mean, they even resorted to the Box and 1 this year. Curry has never made a game winning playoff shot. He missed this year when it counted. Its a phase of the game. All sports have Fad's. MLB is in the "Shift" Era, but players adapt and beat it eventually.
Up and coming kids are going to try to emulate Curry, but there is a reason there are HR Kings in Baseball when EVERYONE took roids. Only certain guys could hit 50-73 HR ON ROIDS. Only certain ALL-TIME players will ever come close to what Curry is doing now. Fundamental basketball is never going away. More possessions, playing faster always works in the casual long regular season, but in the playoffs you ALWAYS see games in the 80s-90s. Not 130-127 final scores in regulation.
- Not taking anything away from the Warriors. They are amazing and 1 of 2 of my favorite Non-Homer teams. AND I hope they prove everyone wrong this year and get right back when Klay returns. But Kawhi Leonard has won 2 titles, 2 finals MVPs with an all around game. He makes more mid range shots than anyone. (Derozen is pretty equal but can't hit 3s). Elite superstars make plays. That's why they are the best at what they do.
It's not quantifiable other than a Loss that a Remy Martin makes 6 circus shots and goes off for 35pts, or Frank Kaminsky stretches Zews out and hits 3s when Zews isn't a perimeter defender and Kaminsky is 6'10 or so and able to hit 3s. OR Sam Dekker hitting like 8 3's in a game of his life. These are just things that happen. Sean Miller adjusts and puts 6'7, 6'8" players on a 6'10 shooter who is having a game of his life. It's just physics. You don't double team every play and give up free 2's. Do we blame our team for Isaiah Thomas hitting a game winner in the pac12 tourney finals? Do we blame our team for Aaron Craft hitting a 3 to beat us in the sweet 16?
Oh, what about Lute's 1-3-1 that allowed Deron Williams to bring Illinois back down 15 in the final 3 minutes of an Elite Eight game? Was that Sean Miller's fault? I don't remember. Does double teaming Allen Iverson count as Lute Olson inventing the wheel? Im sure teams triple teamed AI and he still beat them. Sometimes a 1 man army just cannot get it done.
OR DO YOU EVER GIVE ANY OPPONENT CREDIT WHERE CREDIT IS DUE???
---> One other thought: Liquid seems to also forget that sometimes players like to showcase their talents. If someone like Lauri moved positions, its not always because Sean Miller told him to. Sometimes a College Coach's promise to a recruit is that they will showcase what they can do so that they get exposure for their ultimate goal of being a lottery pick. WHICH Miller has had MANY Lottery picks under developed or not. The development in 1 or 2 years is always going to be limited in a Push and Pull between winning and working on the craft. It was definitely better for Lauri to show that he can play inside and out whether his percentages are up or down. This lends to the Nico-Effect going on here where a ton of people think that a guy can average 14ppg and be a top lottery pick just on "what you see athletically/mechanically as a scout" as opposed to "what he does statistically"
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: Does anyone ever notice that as February rolls around that most shooters tend to start taking their 3s a few feet behind the line? They are doing it on purpose to show that they can play at the NBA standard. It always happens.
Just because Villanova players took their shots right on the 3pt line doesn't mean they did themselves any favors individually at the next level (Mikail Bridges basically being the best currently of that recent batch). They won their titles on 3pt shooting with basically juniors and seniors. They emulated the Warriors and when the guys like Bridges/DiVenchenzo and all moved on they couldn't get it done this year. The 3pt Fad works 99% of the time when you have great 3pt shooters. College has too much turnover to have a program win 8 titles in 10 years on a system based around taking as many 3s as possible.
Sure we would love a perfect universe where Arizona teams always have 3-4 year guys, but that doesn't mean they will all be great 3pt shooters and it doesn't mean that they won't go cold in 1 game in March when it matters. You recruit the best players you can. You do the best you can with them while they have their own motives and aspirations beyond the program and you be GRATEFUL and THANKFUL that they committed their services for way less than they would get paid playing internationally for a year or taking a Bazley fake internship.
Quote from: WILDcatAZfan on July 31, 2019, 11:29:08 AM
Post here instead of the Nico thread about Miller's play style. All of the posts in that thread were moved here.
I started a post on the other thread apparently before you moved these...can you move that one too?
QuoteKobi's 42.8% shooting is impressive in 60 minutes of play? That's good for 335th in the league.
For a 19 year old rookie who did not start on his college team? Yes.
QuoteOf the 4 guys I mentioned, Trier/RHJ/Gordon are in the league with contracts. Everybody knew that NJ was athletic, similar to Salim, wasn't quite an NBA PG. Their athleticism was absolutely utilized in college.
Because of the up tempo game we played? Or the M2M defense or the creative offensive sets we used?
QuotePJC was 5'7". He couldn't dunk, but he was recruited as a nice backup PG in college
.
Agreed - but he was a great athlete.
QuoteComanche's footwork was miserable
.
Agreed - but he was a very good athlete.
QuoteFran Dunphy
Poster boy for Philadelphia Basketball (the most everrated basketball town of all time). He's made the second round of the tournament 3 times in 17 tries. He is literally 3-20 in the tournament.
QuoteJim Boeheim
As I noted.
QuoteMike Hopkins
I think he is totally legit but he is brand new and the proof will be over time.
The point was to name more than handful and you can't because they don't exist.
QuoteEven Scott Drew stayed away from man-to-man until this last season.
So you are saying that coaches can change their ideas and philosophies?...interesting....
QuoteThere are numerous coaches that solely run man-to-man, specifically pack-line.
MANY run M2M - Not that many use pack line.
Dick Bennett is retired. His successor, Bo Ryan did not run the pack line.
Matta is retired. Holtman runs the Pack line but Ohio State slipped to 8th in the big ten this past season (sound familiar?) and based on recruiting is not likely to climb much in the Big Ten. This is analogous to Mackovic running the Double Eagle Flex - 15 years after everyone figured it out.
Sendeck is on the hot seat after three horrible seasons at Santa Clara.
Archie Miller has had 2 dismal seasons at Indiana. This headline pretty much says it all:
https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/college/indiana/2017/11/18/archie-miller-trademark-defense-still-work-progress-iu-basketball/876235001/
QuoteUVA just won 4 of the last 6 ACC Titles and a National Championship without sniffing the lazy-zone.
1. A down era for the ACC. 2. Packline is high percentage winning defense, until you run into legitimate coaching and player talent, which the pack line has no answer for. 3. Virginia is the only pack line team every to even reach the final four and 4. they probably had the easiest path to the championship in 20 years. 5. They used full court press in the middle of games in the tournament and they also played a hybrid pack line that gave up some rebounding in order to run on Purdue. Bennet is a far more flexible coach than Miller.
QuoteI remember Lute's 1-3-1 well. It allowed UW to come back from a 2nd half double-digit deficit on Senior Night in 2006. We had that game wrapped up until Mustafa Shakur kept rotating into coverage with the Huskies' big men. Stellar.
We did not run the 1-3-1 with Mustafa on the baseline, ever. He did not have the quickness or hands for it. We ran Joe McLean, Jason Terry on the baseline in the 1-3-1 set and those teams were the only ones I recall ever using it. Lute abandoned the 1-3-1 long before Mustafa came and we never ran a 1-3-1 for any significant length of time in any game.
QuoteIf he finished with a 26.7% 3-PT mark...it's on him.
wow.
QuoteMiller shouldn't be the scapegoat for Lauri's 2-month struggle.
Is Miller responsible for anything this team, his coaches or the program ever does wrong?
QuoteHe'll be involved in the game-plans.
I cannot imagine a worse idea. Career .344 in the big sky
Quote from: Liquidated on July 31, 2019, 11:31:14 AM
QuoteLiquid is suffering from selective memory syndrome.
one of us is, that is for certain.
QuoteGolden State Warriors didn't prove anything concrete with the 3 point shot.
I'm just gonna let that steep for a while. There is not a serious basketball fan, player or coach who would agree with that statement. Not 1. Golden State and their approach to analytics, literally changed everything. Even the haters of analytics recognize that it is a sea change for the game. MBA programs are using it as a case studies in statistics, colleges are creating special admin positions within the athletic departments to track everything, this is the biggest change in basketball since the shot clock and 3 point line. There are football teams modeling the approach now...it is a big deal and the warriors proved exactly why it is. In an era when everyone said there would be no more dynasties, Golden State is a dynasty, 5 western conference championships IN A ROW. The ONLY franchise ever to win 5 in row (or more) were the Boston Celtics IN THE 1950's and 60's (they won 8, 1957-1966)...The Lakers have never won 5 in row. Neither did the Bulls, Pistons or Spurs. Oh, and they won 3 titles in 4 years.
QuoteFundamental basketball is never going away.
Of course not. Pass, dribble, shoot, defend, rebound... no one is suggesting otherwise.
QuoteMore possessions, playing faster always works in the casual long regular season, but in the playoffs you ALWAYS see games in the 80s-90s. Not 130-127 final scores in regulation.
In 6 games the Raptors and Warriors (combined) averaged 108.66...NBA season average in 2019 was 105.2 for all teams. Only 1 score in 12 was below 100 in the finals. And the college season and game is totally different.
QuoteIt's not quantifiable other than a Loss that a Remy Martin makes 6 circus shots and goes off for 35pts, or Frank Kaminsky stretches Zews out and hits 3s when Zews isn't a perimeter defender and Kaminsky is 6'10 or so and able to hit 3s. OR Sam Dekker hitting like 8 3's in a game of his life. These are just things that happen. Sean Miller adjusts and puts 6'7, 6'8" players on a 6'10 shooter who is having a game of his life. It's just physics. You don't double team every play and give up free 2's. Do we blame our team for Isaiah Thomas hitting a game winner in the pac12 tourney finals? Do we blame our team for Aaron Craft hitting a 3 to beat us in the sweet 16?
This is all anecdotal. In some ways it is what makes the game so great. But Miller does not adjust. When Martin is hot, he does not press him full court to throw his timing off or double team him or switch to a zone to catch him off guard...nope...we just substitute and tell player Y to do exactly what player X was supposed to. Maybe the worst possible way to handle a hot player on an opposing team.
QuoteOh, what about Lute's 1-3-1 that allowed Deron Williams to bring Illinois back down 15 in the final 3 minutes of an Elite Eight game?
I'm going to assume you did not see that game. We did not use the 1-3-1 at all when Mustafa was here. Never. And it was not our defense that failed in that game, it was Mustafa...who stepped out of bounds (un contested in the back court) for no reason at all TWICE to turn the ball over. He literally had no idea where the lines were. He also made some horrendous passes and what was likely Lute's greatest failure ever as a coach, he refused to put Chris Rodgers in who would have atleast changed the tempo and feel of the game and literally anyone on that team would have been better than Mustafa was that night.
I cite the 1-3-1 because it is, at best a gimmick defense. We never played it for more than 3-4 minutes at time. But when Terry ran the baseline it was somewhat effective. And what it did was throw a wrinkle at an opposing coach who, inevitably had to use a TO to coach his players on how to handle it. Then we'd go right back to M2M or we'd suddenly throw a full court press at them. This is coaching 101 - a class Miller missed somewhere along the way.
QuoteWas that Sean Miller's fault?
This is an absurd question - have I ever blamed Miller for a loss under Olson? Is this even germane to the discussion?
QuoteDoes double teaming Allen Iverson count as Lute Olson inventing the wheel? Im sure teams triple teamed AI and he still beat them. Sometimes a 1 man army just cannot get it done.
You missed this game too. YES...Lute DID invent the wheel for that game. The New York Times wrote a long article about it, ten years after it happened. I have never seen or heard of a defense like that before or since and it worked beautifully in a game we were not favored in. Coming into that game Iverson was as close to Zion Williamson (remember there was no social media back then) as you can get. No player, except for maybe Jason Kidd and Ralph Sampson were ever hyped as much as Iverson. And BTW, I think Iverson is still one of the greatest college payers I ever saw.
QuoteOR DO YOU EVER GIVE ANY OPPONENT CREDIT WHERE CREDIT IS DUE???
I get bashed solidly for giving Altman, Hopkins and Hurley and their players and programs their due. So, yes.
Quote---> One other thought: Liquid seems to also forget that sometimes players like to showcase their talents. If someone like Lauri moved positions, its not always because Sean Miller told him to.
You really have no idea how college basketball works, do you?
QuoteSometimes a College Coach's promise to a recruit is that they will showcase what they can do so that they get exposure for their ultimate goal of being a lottery pick.
Not at a good program. Potential lottery picks are always going to get minutes. Unless they are named Simmons and Miller hates them.
QuoteWHICH Miller has had MANY Lottery picks under developed or not.
5 to be exact - Only one of whom left Arizona a better player than when he got here - Derrick Williams. Gordon, Stanimal and Ayton all showed very small improvement, if any. None of them were able to get Miller to final four. Lauri actually got worse as the season progressed - wonder why?
QuoteIt was definitely better for Lauri to show that he can play inside and out whether his percentages are up or down.
.689 3 point shooting percentage. Best move is NO MOVE. This was Miller re-inventing the wheel and making it square. Had he been able to finish at .575 (let's say) in 3 point shooting, he would have been the #1 pick over all.
QuoteThis lends to the Nico-Effect going on here where a ton of people think that a guy can average 14ppg and be a top lottery pick just on "what you see athletically/mechanically as a scout" as opposed to "what he does statistically"
The pool is now large enough that for players to be top needs everything...raw athleticism, pure talent and huge numbers...huge numbers will not come at Arizona. Ayton was literally the only real talent we had last year so he was an exception but his college numbers were not stratospheric.
QuoteFOOD FOR THOUGHT: Does anyone ever notice that as February rolls around that most shooters tend to start taking their 3s a few feet behind the line? They are doing it on purpose to show that they can play at the NBA standard. It always happens.
This would be starvation diet. Great, elite level, pure three point shooters (like Salim, for example) don't pay much attention to the line and yes they tend to get showcased in the tournament because they have carried their teams and we are seeing more and more 3 point shooters (analytics). The kid form Purdue was ridiculous this past year. But everyone else is as close to the line as they can get - no matter what time of year it is.
QuoteJust because Villanova players took their shots right on the 3pt line doesn't mean they did themselves any favors individually at the next level (Mikail Bridges basically being the best currently of that recent batch). They won their titles on 3pt shooting with basically juniors and seniors. They emulated the Warriors and when the guys like Bridges/DiVenchenzo and all moved on they couldn't get it done this year. The 3pt Fad works 99% of the time when you have great 3pt shooters. College has too much turnover to have a program win 8 titles in 10 years on a system based around taking as many 3s as possible.
OMG QuoteThe 3pt Fad works 99% of the time when you have great 3pt shooters.
Why not just say that "the team that scores more wins more than 99% of the time"? 3 point shooting is not a fad. 3 point shooting is rising both in percentage and attempts. NO ONE has ever won 8 titles in ten years or come anywhere close except, of course for Wooden. NO one ever will baring some unforeseen absurdly improbable string one events. Different era. No shot clock. No 3 point line. Only a handful of truly competitive programs - heck the NBA was in its infancy then.
QuoteSure we would love a perfect universe where Arizona teams always have 3-4 year guys, but that doesn't mean they will all be great 3pt shooters and it doesn't mean that they won't go cold in 1 game in March when it matters.
You could say the same for string inside guys or great rebounders....yes, this is obvious. My point - who was the last great 3 point shooter in the program (other than Lauri)? It has not ben point of emphasis for Miller. And as 3 point shooting becomes more and more important in the game, his defense is specifically designed to sacrifice 3 pt shooting defense in favor of other things. He is out of step with the times.
Yes, Fran struggled in Philly...because he only played zone. Boeheim is the ONLY guy to win a national championship with a "mostly" zone D.
Yes, Scott Drew changed his philosophy...and he ended up with the MOST losses since Miller arrived in Tucson.
Don't forget that Holtmann inherited an Ohio State team that was tied for 10th in the Big-10. His rebuild project is doing well...as are the current Xavier/Louisville programs.
ACC has 4 teams that finished in the Top-10 of the AP Poll. Pretty sure the conference is not down. Especially with Dook and UNC championships over the past few seasons.
Forgot to mention that mismatches under the basket (specifically with guys like Shakur, Gardner and Rodgers) were the reason we lost games like the finale against UW.
We could outscore anybody during those days. Defensive scheme was our primary issue.
Quote from: KansasCityCats on July 31, 2019, 02:59:11 PM
Forgot to mention that mismatches under the basket (specifically with guys like Shakur, Gardner and Rodgers) were the reason we lost games like the finale against UW.
We could outscore anybody during those days. Defensive scheme was our primary issue.
Agree that our struggles late in Lute's tenure were more defensively oriented... and with the switching we did there were mis-matches created and I remember well that a small guard would end up under the basket... one reason too was that we started lacking depth of big men. After the Ebi debacle, it seemed we were always playing catch up or taking on projects for the front line. We had Frye but no depth... or IRad and no depth...and then guys like Tangara or Shumpert. Some projects worked out...Jordan Hill for example and the experiment of moving Hassan Adams to the four worked out ok, too but we had some real challenges with big men there for several years.
The thing I loved best about Lute's teams is that he only had ONE Center on the roster at a time...yet they always stuck around with the program...and NEVER got hurt. Don't know if that's "luck" or "good planning", but it allowed the team to play positionless basketball from PG-PF.
Now that Miller is recruiting some larger athletic kids that can play multiple positions, I'm hoping that our defense will create some turnovers and earn transition baskets.
I really LOVE this "ignore" feature! I have had to read one word from Liquidated or Bear in a month. Thanks whoever pointed it out.
Now if I could convince others to ignore liquidated, I wouldn't have to experience him second hand!
Thanks for the tip ^^^^^^^
There's only 1 Chef Curry. Probably once in a lifetime.