What will Next Season Look Like?

[ichi]

In light of the recent MLB revelations about their strategy for reopening, how do you think this will all play out for NCAA hoops and our Wildcats?  For each aspect of this I think there are two important realities - the official strategy and the individual personal realities of each person involved.

lets start with the fans - I see the NCAA and unis taking the most restrictive approach to fans, meaning that at most there will be six feet between occupied seats, less if there is a 'second wave' or other concerns about COVID19 in the fall.  I also think a lot of fans won't give a shit what anybody says and will avoid large crowded events for a very long time.  Bottom line, empty arenas or less than a tenth full.  The Big Red Fan Club may not travel as well.

the players - if you think that it was already difficult to adhere to all of the NCAA rules and regs, get ready for some next level micro-management.  The lengthy list of prohibited stuff form MLB is a clue to what we'll see - no high fives, minimal time in the locker room (come dressed to play from home?), empty seats buffer zone around the benches, restrictive road travel rules, the list isn't endless but its quite long.  How will this safety scenario compare with the NBA, G-league, and Euro rules?  How will this affect individual players decisions on which path to take (combined with the big currents of change already present in college hoops).  I don't care what anybody says basketball is a contact sport, if an outbreak happens on a team how will that go?  If you're going to haul Walton and Lanier up and down the court for 48 minutes does it matter if they're contagious?For example, if UCLA has had a couple of assistants and a player tested positive how will opposing teams react if they're allowed to play?  I can foresee a few cancelled games this season, that could affect conference races and rankings.  Will kids avoid contact?  I can see teams suffering from short rosters as players either withdraw or are pulled when their temp is too high.

the staff - already carrying a a lot of responsibility to do right by the kids on the team, now the stakes may be life or death.  These people have family and kids and elderly relatives and they'll be at a higher risk, even with an overabundance of caution they'll be at a high risk of becoming infected and passing it on at home. I expect recruiting will be harder with more Zoom and less travel, face-to-face.  It gets harder to evaluate potential talent when your travel is limited and the prospects aren't playing games - will scouting be limited to practices for a while?

the NCAA - there is a lot of money to be pocketed, but the NCAA is also very much under a microscope after years of failures and bad press.  These guys are under siege (rightfully so IMHO) and screwing this up could very easily be that camel-breaking straw we've all heard about.  My guess is that they will play this as conservative as possible and still try to make bank.  I expect they'll fuck it up.

the schools - OK so bigtime college sports is no little side note, but in the big picture uni presidents have they're eye on bigger fish that their hoops program.  I think they'll be the most restrictive poilicy-setters, expect an over-abundance of caution with some draconian policies.  If shit blows up I can see this crowd pushing to lay off another year.

Media - these guys see themselves as the biggest losers right now, all that sweet sweet revenue slipping through their grubby little fingers, they'll be the ones pushing to make games happen, they'll also use any controversy or misstep to generate clicks so expect a lot of drama.


Just some rambling analysis during this incredible off-season, big questions as we move forward.  I'm interested in how all y'all think this play out, but please can we skip the speculation about whether this is real or contrived or whether people have lost their minds (AKA no politics please).  I'm not interested if you think this is a Chinese ploy, I want ot know what you think next season will look like.

I hope you are all safe and taking care during this weirdness, we may disagree about whether Miller (or Trump) is the next coming or a giant turd that will devour us all, we're Wildcats and I hope you're doing well

Bear Down Arizona

[ichi]

OK clearly I should have titled this "Predict the Score", let's try something easy to start with

what will the average home attendance for Arizona hoops be this season?

[KansasCityCats]

Ugh.  The answer will likely change on a monthly basis until the season starts.  Hell, the conference attendance may even be drastically different than the Non-Con.

Hopefully it's 14,500/game...but I realistically see a "social distancing" rule going into play, which would limit the arena to a "Wells Fargo-ish" average of 5,500/game.

[ichi]

if the team is looking good I think they could sell out, the limit will be like you say, how many seats they make available, and I'm thinking as public institutions they'll play it on the conservative side

and we'll still lead the conference in home attendance