ACC tremors

[Little George]

Are they going away, or, are they just warming up for the major shifts coming?

Hearing all the FSU leaving garbage because FSU is not happy with what is a terrible TV contract that runs through 2036 with NO increases in revenue. They get less than the B12! Now with FSU, unless the B10 bows down with the academic requirements, FSU does not meet B10 requirements! NO B10 for them. SEC does not want them. SEC wants Virginia and UNC. They want to expand their viewership! They own Florida and S Carolina already. The B10 could jump on Clemson, and have desired ND for ever and a day. There are seven schools that have taken interest in the B12 already, but some that haven't yet will have to also find a home IF the conference comes apart.

B12 will expand to stay a major player, but really would rather have a merger of some sort, or a partnership.
B12 would love to have Pitt and Louisville from the north and some teams from the south as well, but mostly just rumors flying right now. Pitt and Louisville were two of the seven teams that have taken interest, but I am not sure the B12 wants all of the seven that have taken that interest.
Brett values basketball highly as he sees it as a pathway to compete on the big scale. Gotta think the rivalries matter as well.

The end of the day IF the ACC comes apart, the B12 could find itself being the B20 or B24. The B10 and SEC will eventually have to dump their lower end schools in order to keep up with greed for more money and control. ESPN has been a major part of the tear down of the structure of NCAA FB and were definitely a major player in the destruction of the B12 before the PAC suicided itself. B12 was on life support at one point and now the PAC is deceased and the ACC is in the crossfire.

Virginia and UNC to the SEC?
Miami and Clemson might be targets of the B10.
Duke hasn't moved either direction, nor have I seen interest from either the B10 or SEC, but the B12 would be elated to get them.
Stanford and California have lost most interest in sports and that is why they were NOT discussed in B12 membership before. IF OSU and WSU were in the California markets, they would already be a part of the B12.
Lots of twisting and turning to go on this topic before it settles. Remember that the TV contracts will open back up with some of the names we are talking about here. ND, Clemson, FSU, UNC, etc...
The number I heard some time back, before we officially joined the B12, was 20 to 24 schools broken down into four pods of six. That would be 20 FB schools and 4 non-FB schools. Now it would likely be 24 FB schools initially anyway. Brett wants to dominate BB so that he can separate the tv deals between the two sports and have a much bigger leverage.

What are some of your thoughts?

[FCat]

Could really just be a knee jerk reaction. Best to see if this talk is still around during the summer time since that's when realignment happens. What I do know is current ACC teams are pretty much stuck till 2035ish. And I cannot imagine how high that buyout currently is.

[FCat]

Looks like the exit fee would be about $120m. That's no small number for school even they of fsu with sec or big ten potential. And I don't think a conference is willing to shell out that much at the moment especially when multiple schools are on the table.

https://apnews.com/article/c10c2ec83dbd59d6281f98a18ebd8bf5

[Little George]

Looks like the exit fee would be about $120m. That's no small number for school even they of fsu with sec or big ten potential. And I don't think a conference is willing to shell out that much at the moment especially when multiple schools are on the table.

https://apnews.com/article/c10c2ec83dbd59d6281f98a18ebd8bf5

Yes, to exit, but IF more than eight teams agree to leave the exit fee goes away with the dissolving of the conference. I may have the wrong number, but not looking it up again right now. I believe it is somewhere in the eight school range. At that point the TV contract is void and the the exit fee is gone.

[FCat]

Well seems like they got 5 schools on board then. The Carolinas and the Florida schools. Who woulda thought usc and Florida state could be in the same conference.

[arxpert]

Oregon State and Washington State can align with the ACC. Who cares about travel. These kids are all professionals now. They earn too much money to be considered students. They don't even qualify for Stimulus Checks. They can get on airplanes.

[Little George]

Looks like Florida State and Clemson to the Big 10.

What happens next?

UNC to the SEC, likely with Virginia.

The conference comes apart!

Not sure how it all falls out, but it is likely that Louisville, VaTech, NCSt, and either Pitt or Miami to the B12. Pitt has a natural rivalry with WVa in the Back Yard Brawl that would be awesome. WVa also has a natural rivalry with VaTech. Miami is the odd ball out here.

I could see GaTech to the B10 for the Atlanta market, but not sure where that falls. If the B10 can land ND, that would be the BIG grab for them at this point. IF they were to get ND, it is likely they would add Stanford as the balance. That would leave Miami floating. The SEC gains nothing from Miami. Would the B12 take Miami and GaTech? IDK. This could take a few years to work out, but I say it all flips this year! Word is sometime this summer for much of it.

One more option is that ND goes to the B12 is everything except FB in order to keep their FB independence.
That one makes sense because ND wants to stay Independent, and the B12 has been looking to add non-FB programs. Gonzaga, UConn, and now Duke have been mentioned.

I have said for some time that the SEC did not want FSU and Clemson. Looks to be true. SEC has their eyes on Virginia and UNC first. Also have heard they might want Kansas State at some point in the future. They will also at some point look to go west.

I know somebody will say I am crazy, but that would be nothing new.

[KansasCityCats]

I think Louisville, Pitt and Miami make sense with the existing schools in the Big-12.

VaTech may be the odd-man out if we end up adding TWO North Carolina schools.  Could you imagine playing Dook and Kansas within the conference on an annual basis?  Basketball season would be nuts.

College athletics is about to implode.  Looking forward to the shakeups in the near future but the end-result won't be good.

[Little George]

I think Louisville, Pitt and Miami make sense with the existing schools in the Big-12.

VaTech may be the odd-man out if we end up adding TWO North Carolina schools.  Could you imagine playing Dook and Kansas within the conference on an annual basis?  Basketball season would be nuts.

College athletics is about to implode.  Looking forward to the shakeups in the near future but the end-result won't be good.

Yea, it is all up to what the "Big Two" decide to do.
Oregon State board said OSU was going with Oregon to the B10. I could see that only if the B10 takes Stanford so there is an even number of western teams. Which is the indication I have heard. Notre Dame wants Stanford as a rival. Academic stuff. Then you might see the B10 take a GaTech, or a Miami. I think Ga Tech is worth more in the Atlanta area market.That would put them at 24 where they planned initially to stop. The end game is a two conference set up with divisions and a total of 64 teams. I know Arizona is a part of that 64 IF and when it ever happens. It would be totally separate of the NCAA and all other sports.

The BIG picture for the B12 is simply this, IF the ACC is done and the plan is Louisville, Pitt, VaTech, and NCSt, and then Miami, UNC, or any other big opportunity is laying there for the taking, it will get done. That should include GaTech. IDK about Duke because the mention was UNC and NCSt. IF the B12 got either or both it would not need Duke for the market. I know the basketball power that Duke has, but the reality is that this is currently all driven by football. It may get split off separate from basketball at some point, but not at this point. IF the B12 is going to stay a significant player, it will end up with 24 either way. Reason is simple. market shares. This conference will need to compete for championships with whatever format is at the moment. That format will change until it is where big money wants it.

As of right now the targets were originally the four I mentioned in Louisville Pitt Va Tech and NC State. We cannot pass up any other major player that slide our way. Would we pass ion Va Tech? I hope not. Would we pass on Miami? I do not think we could afford to. So expansion is an idea but there is NO set number. To me Ga tech is super valuable as well being in Atlanta area.
Markets priority are simple. Florida, North Carolina, DC area, and Atlanta area. Louisville is also an important area as well as Pitt, but simply due to WVa and Cincinnati being in the conference puts those rivalries ahead of the others. Plan for four, take whatever comes.
ND seems to be the horse that stands in the way of some of this. ND wants to stay independent and the only way it has worked is to be aligned with the ACC in everything except FB. Would the B2 conferences offer that? NO! Would the B12 offer that? It might if it could land ND in all other sports. Will that happen? Not likely! Could it? IDK

IF the B10 took ND and Stanford, OSU would match up with Stanford from the west. then the B10 would take one more team east which could be Va tech or Miami, but most likely Ga Tech for the market in the heart of SEC country and a big market area. Utah has also been rumored in this horse trading, but separate from Stanford. B10 and SEC will have their choice. The only barriers there are that Virginia wants Va tech and Virginia to go together. North Carolina has stated that UNC and NC State got together. Would the SEC take Va Tech and NC State to gain Virginia and North Carolina? They could. IF that occurred then Miami would fall our way along with Pitt and Louisville. That would end up with the B12 needing one more to keep it even. Then you could see a Duke being added, but the options would be one of like: Duke, Tulane, WSU, I do not see where SMU would add much, or getting into the Cali market with a SDSU or someone that would bring a significant market. In this case the east would pit Louisville/Cincinnati, Pitt/WVA, Miami/UCF. Adding another eastern team leaves an odd number of teams east as for rivals.

There are so many pieces yet to fall before it is settled, but eventually it will likely be the Big Two at 64 total teams.