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Arizona Wildcats Basketball Forums => Arizona Wildcats Basketball => Topic started by: WILD on March 17, 2023, 10:28:00 AM

Title: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: WILD on March 17, 2023, 10:28:00 AM
Princeton is much better than your average 15 seed. They're ranked 68 in RPI rankings, which out them ahead of a number of big named schools. They're tough and Princeton is actually a pretty big team overall. Their tallest player is 6'9, but their shortest player is 6'4. Their guards were giving our smaller guards fits and that's were the true advantage came into play. Deep down I think a lot of UofA fans new that once Princeton was announced as the opponent, it was not going to be an easy game. I mean, we lost to Washington State at home, so this loss really shouldn't be as much of a shock after all.




RPI rankings
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/rpi-ranking/rpi-rating-by-team
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: KansasCityCats on March 17, 2023, 11:41:39 AM
Other 15 seeds:

Vermont - 63
Asheville - 81
Colgate - 100

14 Seeds:

Kennesaw - 53
Montana St - 89
Grand Canyon - 91
UCSB - 95

Even Furman as a 13 seed was ranked higher than Princeton.  Arizona and Xavier didn't get favorable matchups from the committee...
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: KansasCityCats on March 17, 2023, 11:42:10 AM
Furman was ranked "lower" than Princeton (typo)
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: Little George on March 17, 2023, 02:25:05 PM
That is because the committee doesn't care about what is and isn't, they want certain teams to advance and they place the bracket that way. However, it does not really matter where you are placed you have to have heart and put forth effort to win. We had neither heart no efort and deserved to go home in the first round. In fact IF we were NOT going to make an effort we should have removed ourselves from the dance and allowed the next best team into it. Talk about embarrassing? We were absolutely heartless.
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: Bkatt on March 17, 2023, 05:07:07 PM
I really don't like posts like this. We are sugar-coating things and reaching to make excuses. There really shouldn't be any excuses to lose to Princeton.
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: KansasCityCats on March 18, 2023, 05:44:26 AM
Unless your opponent is ranked higher than you, there is never an excuse to lose.  Still, it is a fact that other programs had easier first round matchups, according to analytics.
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: arxpert on March 18, 2023, 10:47:30 AM
Quote from: KansasCityCats on March 18, 2023, 05:44:26 AM
Unless your opponent is ranked higher than you, there is never an excuse to lose.  Still, it is a fact that other programs had easier first round matchups, according to analytics.

It's time for you to pack it up for the season KC Cat. Your crusading is falling flat and missing the mark. The apologist stuff and finding a way to make it make sense is unbecoming of someone who typically has at least a decent reply. There's no excuse. "Tournament Tommy" is not who you think he is.
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: KansasCityCats on March 18, 2023, 02:17:32 PM
I had to make excuses for Miller during a 10 year span and it got us nothing but a few conference championships...which this staff has already accomplished over a two year span.

Go back to Tempe if you don't want to cheer for your alma mater.
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: mvpreed2 on March 18, 2023, 07:53:34 PM
There should never be a situation where a program with as much talent as Arizona should be losing to a program like Princeton.
99% of the time, this team beats Princeton by +20pts.

I believe the problem is this program lacked that killer instinct to go on a 10-0 or 12-0 run to REALLY put the game away.
Arizona goes on an 8-0 run, but allow a 10-0 run to let their opponent right back into the game.
There should be an "all gas" type of mindset when it comes to competition, especially when you have Arizona across your chest.
#BearDown
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: Eurozona on March 19, 2023, 12:07:43 PM
Quote from: KansasCityCats on March 18, 2023, 02:17:32 PM
I had to make excuses for Miller during a 10 year span and it got us nothing but a few conference championships...which this staff has already accomplished over a two year span.

Go back to Tempe if you don't want to cheer for your alma mater.
Lets work with the facts here. Miller got 5 Pac championships, 5 S16's and 3 EE's (1st in his 2nd year). We all like Lloyd as a coach, but he has a long way to go to get to Miller status.
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: Deb on March 19, 2023, 12:19:10 PM
Quote from: EuroZona on March 19, 2023, 12:07:43 PM
Quote from: KansasCityCats on March 18, 2023, 02:17:32 PM
I had to make excuses for Miller during a 10 year span and it got us nothing but a few conference championships...which this staff has already accomplished over a two year span.

Go back to Tempe if you don't want to cheer for your alma mater.
Lets work with the facts here. Miller got 5 Pac championships, 5 S16's and 3 EE's (1st in his 2nd year). We all like Lloyd as a coach, but he has a long way to go to get to Miller status.

And he has 10 more yrs to do it for a fair comparison.
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: KansasCityCats on March 19, 2023, 01:32:00 PM
Lloyd only needs one more PAC-12 tournament title...and  is already tied for Final Fours at Arizona...
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: arxpert on March 19, 2023, 02:22:11 PM
Quote from: EuroZona on March 19, 2023, 12:07:43 PM
Quote from: KansasCityCats on March 18, 2023, 02:17:32 PM
I had to make excuses for Miller during a 10 year span and it got us nothing but a few conference championships...which this staff has already accomplished over a two year span.

Go back to Tempe if you don't want to cheer for your alma mater.
Lets work with the facts here. Miller got 5 Pac championships, 5 S16's and 3 EE's (1st in his 2nd year). We all like Lloyd as a coach, but he has a long way to go to get to Miller status.

They can't cope that "Tournament Tommy" L ain't it. He turned this once proud basketball University into a charmin soft Mid Major in March. Tommy isn't getting 8 more years at this rate. The boosters with deep pockets are already starting to talk about that. Especially if there is a move to the Big12.
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: LeftCoastCats on March 19, 2023, 03:28:23 PM
I believe this is about the time in the Miller era that we were convinced he was going to Pitt or something because his wife had allergies. Same kinda "boosters with deep pockets" ethos vibe to the insiders knowledge on things too.

Tommy has a job here for as long as he wants at this rate.
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: KansasCityCats on March 19, 2023, 04:34:27 PM
Yup. Miller interviewed at Maryland and Amy was supposedly unhappy (which wasn't true because I had a nice conversation with her in Maui and she seemed to love it).

Arizona had a recruiting class of Bejarano, Mayes, perry and Korcheck.

Regardless, we fortunately stuck with the staff and we should do the same wi try Lloyd.
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: LeftCoastCats on March 19, 2023, 05:48:10 PM
Matt Korcheck, good lawd; although Jordin Mayes wasn't bad.

All goes to show that we have revisionist memories of the past, took time for Miller to get going with recruiting.

Both Tommy and Sean had great success early on, Sean just had a pretty magical 2nd year run.

It will always be darkest before the dawn. I'm expecting an incredible future ahead with Tommy at the helm.
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: arxpert on March 19, 2023, 10:00:33 PM
Quote from: LeftCoastCats on March 19, 2023, 05:48:10 PM
Matt Korcheck, good lawd; although Jordin Mayes wasn't bad.

All goes to show that we have revisionist memories of the past, took time for Miller to get going with recruiting.

Both Tommy and Sean had great success early on, Sean just had a pretty magical 2nd year run.

It will always be darkest before the dawn. I'm expecting an incredible future ahead with Tommy at the helm.

1. No Head Coach's wife is going to tell you her sob stories about living in Tucson KC
2. Miller was left with less than nothing. It was worse than that. He came in and immediately pilfered USC of Momo, Solomon, and Derrick Williams. Tommy was left with Lambos and Ferrari's. I don't ever want to see someone compared the recruiting prowess of Sean Miller to Tommy ever again. That is out of bounds.
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: KansasCityCats on March 20, 2023, 07:49:32 AM
Lloyd had TWO committed players when he was hired in April: Dalen Terry and Christian Koloko.  Dalen was coming off a freshman campaign with 4.6 PPG, 3.2 RPG and 1.5 APG.  Koloko had 5.3/4.8/0.3 and 1.3 blocks as a sophomore.  In Lloyd's first year, he TURNED Dalen into an 8.0/4.8/3.9 player.  Koloko respectively had 12.6/7.3/1.4/2.8.  I would also consider both of them to be two of the best defenders in the entire conference, which wasn't the case in 2020-21.

Otherwise, the remaining players on the roster planned on leaving Tucson until Lloyd and his staff sat down and convinced them to stick around for another season.  In addition, he found last second transfers to fill the gaps of an AVERAGE team that finished 11-9 in an awful Pac-12. 

Both coaches (Miller and Lloyd) did an amazing job of flipping the culture of an almost dying program.  Miller had more work to do but it showed with a 16-16 record, while Lloyd was breaking records and earning hardware immediately.  He turned our Hondas into Lambos and Ferraris.

Also, Amy Miller was very open about her situation regarding Tucson.  Despite having mild allergies, she loved Tucson and the community that embraced her (and her sons) during the first couple seasons.  Perhaps she was just playing the game...but she seemed genuine.
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: CactusCat on March 20, 2023, 08:40:34 AM
#15 seeds review by closing line/point spread.
Princeton +15.5
Vermont +10.5
Asheville +17.5
Colgate +12.5

In other words, Arizona's match up was the second easiest in terms of #15 seed match ups vs. the #2 seed, only UCLA's was easier.
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: KansasCityCats on March 20, 2023, 08:50:12 AM
Spread doesn't show the analytics of how a team performed throughout the course of an entire season.  It's just an anticipatory statistic of how the general public will blow their money in Vegas.

Kennesaw State was 115 in the NET Rankings but only an 11.5 underdog to Xavier in the First Round.  NET Rankings, BPI, KenPom, etc. are better ways to determine the strength of a matchup.
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: CactusCat on March 20, 2023, 09:00:46 AM
Quote from: KansasCityCats on March 20, 2023, 08:50:12 AM
Spread doesn't show the analytics of how a team performed throughout the course of an entire season.  It's just an anticipatory statistic of how the general public will blow their money in Vegas.

Kennesaw State was 115 in the NET Rankings but only an 11.5 underdog to Xavier in the First Round.  NET Rankings, BPI, KenPom, etc. are better ways to determine the strength of a matchup.

If you would like to argue that Princeton has performed better over the course of the season than some other team that is a different discussion.
The game is played in the First Round, not during the whole course of the season. Also, those metrics are useful for overall performance of a team but do not account for MATCH-UPS at all. For example, injuries, style of play, coaching tendencies, travel, rest, how a team's crowd travels, etc.
Betting lines are the single best way to judge how teams match-up vs. each other hands down.
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: arxpert on March 20, 2023, 03:32:12 PM
Quote from: KansasCityCats on March 20, 2023, 07:49:32 AM
Lloyd had TWO committed players when he was hired in April: Dalen Terry and Christian Koloko.  Dalen was coming off a freshman campaign with 4.6 PPG, 3.2 RPG and 1.5 APG.  Koloko had 5.3/4.8/0.3 and 1.3 blocks as a sophomore.  In Lloyd's first year, he TURNED Dalen into an 8.0/4.8/3.9 player.  Koloko respectively had 12.6/7.3/1.4/2.8.  I would also consider both of them to be two of the best defenders in the entire conference, which wasn't the case in 2020-21.

Otherwise, the remaining players on the roster planned on leaving Tucson until Lloyd and his staff sat down and convinced them to stick around for another season.  In addition, he found last second transfers to fill the gaps of an AVERAGE team that finished 11-9 in an awful Pac-12. 

Both coaches (Miller and Lloyd) did an amazing job of flipping the culture of an almost dying program.  Miller had more work to do but it showed with a 16-16 record, while Lloyd was breaking records and earning hardware immediately.  He turned our Hondas into Lambos and Ferraris.

Also, Amy Miller was very open about her situation regarding Tucson.  Despite having mild allergies, she loved Tucson and the community that embraced her (and her sons) during the first couple seasons.  Perhaps she was just playing the game...but she seemed genuine.

You can stop with the fairytale of Tommy's re-recruitment of these players. They weren't going anywhere. It was that simple. End of story there. You are making too many excuses. Also your commentary is just as equal to me saying that I believe that Nico, Josh Green, and Zeke were peaking at the right time before Covid hit and we lost out on a major opportunity. These players were developed. Run N Gun is not some crazy and wild science to learn. The complexities of playing in an experienced coaching system is far harder to train in than to be let loose and say "let it rip" like they are back in middle school. 3 ball and pace is not coaching heavy, it's talent heavy. That's why the NBA is a Player's league, not a coaching league.
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: arxpert on March 20, 2023, 07:03:55 PM
Quote from: KansasCityCats on March 18, 2023, 02:17:32 PM
I had to make excuses for Miller during a 10 year span and it got us nothing but a few conference championships...which this staff has already accomplished over a two year span.

Go back to Tempe if you don't want to cheer for your alma mater.

You didn't have to make excuses for Miller. He was an Elite HC for Arizona and earned everything he accomplished on his own merit taking over a program that Lute destroyed at the end and rebuilding it from scratch. Tommy just took the baton and hasn't done anything to "re-brand" anything. The Run N Gun "system" (that's being generous to call the simple free flowing NBA style Pace and Analytics a system in 2023) was proven to have regressed when the talent regressed. Take away the NBA players that Miller left behind and we got a gassed out Ballo by mid season and a bunch of guards who couldn't shoot nor drive and dish. Pretty easy to rack up assists when you pass the ball along the perimeter running a weave then toss a high lob inside. There's no nuance to our team assists at all.
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: KansasCityCats on March 20, 2023, 08:42:22 PM
If run n gun were easy, college programs wouldn't average 72 PPG. Miller promised it annually to the media and recruits; the Cats fans were constantly disappointed.

Yet, nobody ended their careers with as much disappointment as the Wildcat recruits. With the exception of Dwill and TJ, Arizona went 10 years without developing a single post player or point guard (despite Miller running the point at a high level).

5* recruits were promised the world and they ended up in Europe (at best). Tarczewski, Ashley, Jarrett, Turner, Momo, Kyryl and countless others didn't even sniff the league., despite having a significant amount of upside when entering Tucson.

Aside from the lack of admiration from the media, alumni and players, Miller's biggest downfall was that he couldn't win big games. Regular season wins over Florida were nice but they didn't push the fans to fight for him after years of disappointment.

Lloyd need an opportunity to try and succeed at the collegiate level. We'll see how wildcat fans feel in 8 years...
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: CactusCat on March 21, 2023, 05:24:51 PM
At +9.5 Princeton is the biggest Sweet Sixteen underdog. Maybe Creighton is worried they don't match up well?
Title: Re: Princeton was a bad match-up for Arizona and here's why
Post by: AZip on March 22, 2023, 01:51:12 AM
And they lost to Yale twice??  They did go on and win their next game...lets hope for a 3rd win...Go IVY league