Tommy's Army

[Bkatt]

Great analysis LCC!

[arxpert]

Q: What if the Queen had a penis?
A: Then he'd be the King.

(That response to non-sequitur was more obvious 5+ years ago).

"What if" questions like the one presented about KJ are impossible to answer and generally unnecessary. If KJ shows up and lights up our guards, who the hell knows what'll happen.

Ballo is a center, period. Dwight Howard is a generous 6'10. Bam Adebayo, Christian Wood, and a handful of others are starting or high impact 6'9 centers in the NBA.

Ballo is a handful downlow and is easily one of the best pure centers in the nation and the best one in the PAC12. He sure as hell isn't a 4/PF/Wing.

Tommy runs most of his sets out of a "4 out - 1 in" motion, and I promise Ballo will always be the "1" in the 4-1 set when he's on the court. Even during Tommy's awesome Hi-Lo, that doesn't require two bigs running it. Keshad and Ballo can easily make that work. Moreover I see quite a few minutes that have a Ballo/HV and Ballo/Paulius lineup - giving the nod to two 6'8+ guys playing with each other at the same time.

The more interesting question of lineups/playing time; I foresee the following getting the bulk of the available 200 minutes, in order:

28+ minute tier:
Boswell
Love
Ballo
Pelle

20-28 minute tier:
Keshad
Bradley

10-20 minute tier:
Paulius
Henri

Less than 10 tier:
KJ
Dylan
Filip

20/20 guys (up 20/down 20)
Conrad
Krivas
Little Zu?

Lineup at the end of the game

1) Boswell
2) Love
3) Pelle
4) Keshad
5) Ballo

I love this team on paper so much more than last seasons, based on versatility and toughness factors alone. I really hope this becomes the expected makeup of a Tommy style roster going forward.

If Boswell becomes the archetype of a Tommy Lloyd player - I'm all in.

Given your analysis, I will ask what you thought when you saw Tommy starting to deploy Koloko and Ballo together in Year 1 down the stretch and rolling with that strategy into March Madness. He has put Ballo at the 4 before.

There is a point to "What If" because this is part of the Tommy Lloyd stubbornness factor. Are we going to see it this year or is Tommy going to be playing 9-10 players and finding impact lineups per matchups and actually "coach" the game, in-game, and not just say "you guys are my 6-7 dudes, go out there and give them your best shot". Coaching a roster like this should mean finding ways to consistently matchup with each unique opponent. It's different than the first 2 seasons. As you mentioned liking the team composition on paper, it does visually appear like a more full tool kit. Will Tommy use all the tools? It's a valid concern as Tommy is now in Year 3 and expected by most to take a gigantic intellectual coaching leap after learning some tough lessons running his teams into the ground the last 2 years.

They ran a lot of Hi-Lo based out of a 3 out 2 low traditional look allowing for great perimeter spacing, if I remember correctly, the whole twin towers construct - but I'm fuzzy on that. Defensively, Loko would always be assigned the perimeter player whereas Ballo would stay on the block. Truly allowed Loko the ability to showcase that incredible aspect to his game. I think Ballo was the acting center in that set, but I could be wrong. There's no benefit to putting Ballo on the perimeter. If HV or Dylan play alongside Ballo, given their offensive skillset - Ballo would once again be playing the 5.

I don't get hung up on height. KD is 7 feet tall, and is a wing and can never play the 5 outside of international play - even when the shorter Biyombo/Landale guys are in for Ayton.

As far as rotation goes, I believe Tommy will go 10-11 deep for the majority of the non conference before tightening it up to 9 in conference and will get his 8 man rotation locked in by the tournament. I too wish he played Bal and Henri more this past year.

I keep referencing the NBA, but Denver is on its way to a championship by largely utilizing a 7 man rotation (in Denver no less). They really only go 8 in blowouts this post season. The 7-8 man rotation is the norm in important games. Our guys are well conditioned and have no problem playing 35+ minutes whenever needed.

I'm not hung up on the short rotations in key games. I am more hopeful that this year Tommy is more willing to go 10-11 deep early in the season, play with different lineup configurations etc and give a longer leash to those players to give them the fair chance to figure it out.

Quick First Note - KD is actually an excellent interior defender. Extremely underrated. People just think he is slim and easy to bulldoze. For the Suns, I really do hope they trade CP3 and keep Ayton at least into next season. Ayton extended CP3's career and now that it fell off a cliff, I think it's only fair to see what Ayton is without CP3 and Monty - and I hope the Suns find a way to add Fred VanVleet at PG. The Suns can always trade Ayton at any point up to the Deadline for whatever package of players they need salary matched. They owe it to themselves to not dump Ayton this summer and see if Vogel can unlock more of his potential since he is a defensive maven of a head coach. If he has to go, they better get a very good haul.

Now onto more pressing issues:

Tommy has always played effectively 2 5's. That's why we see so many moonball lobs to Koloko + Tubelis, Ballo + Tubelis, Koloko + Ballo, etc. He doesn't like for those players to step out and shoot. While I recognize that Ballo + Dylan doesn't necessarily inspire any fear of a potential pick and pop around the FT line range or a dribble in and floater attempt like it was with Tubelis, I still believe it is potentially one of the best configurations Tommy can have. Especially with HV and Dylan who both have proven they *can* shoot the ball. Not that they need to shoot it 6 times a game, but the threat of being able to knock down a jumper is enough to validate using 2 bigs.

I only say PF because Ballo is the size of a PF, not a true Center. That's just a physical thing and it's not to say he can't play "the 5". He obviously can, but he would be dwarfed by Embiid, Jokic, Gobert, KAT, etc at the next level. Again, does it mean anything necessarily? Not really. Draymond Green is barely 6'6" and scraps with everyone. So getting caught up on the PF thing is not really pertinent.

The thing people keep missing with "PF" is there seems to be an expectation that the "4" is a PF. And the "4" has to be a "Stretch 4" automatically. That's just simply not true. Only a team with a player that is a Stretch 4 can say they have a stretch 4. If you don't have the Bosh, Garnett, or in recent years Jabari Smith, Brandon Miller, you don't really have a "Stretch 4". So Tommy has to play to his strengths. Henri would represent a decent stretch 4 compared to Keshad Johnson in my opinion. But Tommy has to allow for that to be a thing within the scheme for it to be a statement we can make.

Again, so far, Tommy plays 2 5's however you want to call the formations.

As for the Nuggets - They have had the easiest path of all time. The Heat have had the hardest path of all time. 7-8 players has been working for them. Yes they lost last night, but still feel like they are "ok". Coach Spo however is using 10 guys and he is mixing and matching as best as he can this whole postseason.

The NBA Always reduces the lineups to 7-8 players as the playoffs come, but the key difference in the NBA vs College is not just that College is "6 Game 7's in a row" for March Madness vs Series, but NBA coaches actually utilize all their players throughout the season. College doesn't have as many games, but there is still enough time for a Coach to begin with the 10-11 players you mention in the OOC, go to 9-10 in Conference play then tighten to 8-9 down the stretch until it becomes a 7-8 situation in Tournament play.

But Tommy needs to actually allow these players to get enough playing time throughout the season so that they are ready to play when the time comes. You can't win 6 games in a row without having to bring someone off the bench these days. Does anyone remember Florida Atlantic this year? Remember the Vlad Goldin game? He didn't play much at all until he had a huge impact in the Kansas State game out of no where. It's a product of the Coach adjusting in-game and having his players ready all season.

Tommy needs to become flexible and be able to insert players as needed. That is a major point of emphasis in his growth as a coach in Year 3 now that he assembled an extremely versatile and deep roster.




***Footnote: I left Little Tubelis off this list. I would throw him in the SF pile, but it is possible he could see some minutes too. We don't know much about his game at all. I doubt he will get much run, but it was my bad that I forgot to put him in as he is probably better than the real last guys on the bench who are walk ons.

[arxpert]

Great breakdown, LCC.  I agree with everything, except I do think it may become more common to see Lloyd mix it up and have two bigs in the post this season (assuming Dylan and Henri develop and earn minutes). 

We have 5 really good guards that should eat up minutes, with Boswell/Love/Larsson on the floor for a majority of the game.  When Keshad isn't playing the PF spot, there's a good chance that Lloyd will try to beat opponents with size and deploy two 7-footers.

It'll be interesting to see how minutes are distributed for the #5-#11 guys on the depth chart because this roster is different from anything we've seen in the past.  Looking forward to October!

This is why I mention - How do you keep everyone happy?

Tommy needs to show us that he is willing to expand to deeper lineups. He doesn't have to necessarily tighten up rotations down the stretch in terms of limiting who sees the court and who doesn't like he did last season --- He should be able to read the room and use his tool kit as needed AND the players should all be ready to contribute not being cold having sat on the bench 12 games in a row for no reason while watching other players having 2-9 nights from the field.

[KansasCityCats]

You don't play players to make them happy; you play the best players available to win and develop talent.  Miller was good at it...which is the reason he lost multiple guys like Sidiki, Simon, Bejarano, Chol, Victor, Chol, Barcello and Akot.  In today's landscape of the "portal", transferring is even more common and it should be assumed that players will opt to be impatient and leave.  The fact that Henri and Dylan are staying for their sophomore seasons shows that they trust Lloyd's process (thus far).

When Tubelis put up 40 against Dante's Ducks, he only had ONE single dunk in the game.  Yes, there were plenty of contested layups but he is capable of stepping back and taking jumpers (along with any other bigs that came through Lloyd's system).

[arxpert]

You don't play players to make them happy; you play the best players available to win and develop talent.  Miller was good at it...which is the reason he lost multiple guys like Sidiki, Simon, Bejarano, Chol, Victor, Chol, Barcello and Akot.  In today's landscape of the "portal", transferring is even more common and it should be assumed that players will opt to be impatient and leave.  The fact that Henri and Dylan are staying for their sophomore seasons shows that they trust Lloyd's process (thus far).

When Tubelis put up 40 against Dante's Ducks, he only had ONE single dunk in the game.  Yes, there were plenty of contested layups but he is capable of stepping back and taking jumpers (along with any other bigs that came through Lloyd's system).

You have to be able to manage a roster. You are taking the word Happy too literally. He made 3 or 4 useful players sit on that bench last year and watch 1-9, 2-10, 3-14 type shooting nights consistently from Kerr or whoever else was cold on a given night and he lost the locker room as evidenced by the comments made after the Princeton loss.

Pelle was having horrible games and Tommy made everyone watch until that last straw broke the camel's back in whatever game we lost that we should have won early to mid conference slate when Tommy finally put Pelle back on the 6th man role.

He isn't going to be able to get away with that this season. This team has a Ton of players that can affect the outcome in many different ways. The players aren't stupid. They know they can get their cash for doing nothing, but in this era they also know that they can make life changing money if they are in the games showing off their talents knowing they can leverage it into new NIL deals or transfer bounties.

The kids should want to be on the court at all costs. Tommy has to manage this aspect this season. He put together a very large team and unlike Miller's over-recruitment issues as a very experienced and nuanced Head Coach, Tommy is a Year 3 inexperienced Head Coach who over recruited. I think it is completely fine because he will know he should have some players that stick it out year after year with this strategy in some capacity, but it begs the question as to how Tommy will coach it. It is obviously a "wait and see" situation, but I am watching closely.

I am expecting a gigantic leap in coaching ability this season. He got by with what was there the last couple seasons. This is where he needs to show his own coaching growth.

It is not wrong to demand a better product as a consumer. If you pay the kids, play the kids.

[KansasCityCats]

Although I don't agree with you, I respect the hot take.  The players that wanted to get paid are out and the players that want to be a part of this program will be playing for our staff in 2023-24.  Hopefully, we get better results in the postseason, specifically from our upperclassmen.